Posted: 12.05.06 09:08. Post subject: Jesus-MarieMadeleine/DaVinci code

From: Desjardins Bertrand [mailto:bertrand.desjardins@umontreal.ca]

For every given generation, some people don't reproduce, some reproduce a
little, and some reproduce a lot. Unless something extraordinary happens,
anybody who reproduces a lot will fatally appear in the family trees of
everyone after a number of generations. This principle is modulated by the
size and timing of in-migrations. Those who don't reproduce and a portion
of those who reproduce only a little disappear have no descendants after a
while (20-25% of those who marry have no descendants after the third
generation.

The Jesus-MarieMadeleine/DaVinci code angle that started this thread (that
there would be descendants of Jesus today, but only a limited number)
requires that two conditions be met: Jesus had to reproduce only a little
and all his descendants had to both reproduce and reproduce just a little.
If 20% of couples have only one or two married children, then meeting the
two conditions to this day has a probability of .2 times 20 centuries
times 4 generations/century, or .2 at the 80th power. Even with 30%, or 40%, or
50%, the odds are extremely low that a couple can have descendants over 80
generations but only a few!

As for genetic affiliation and human numbers, we have an observation of
the
French-Canadian population of Quebec from its beginnings in the early 17th
century to today and theses questions are being studied. We know that
virtually the entire French Canadian gene pool originates from around 6000
French immigrants who came before the British takeover. Those who settled
before 1680 account for two thirds of the whole. See:

Hubert Charbonneau et al., The First French Canadians. Pioneers in the
St.Lawrence Valley. Newark, London and Toronto, University of Delaware
Press
and Associated University Presses, 1993. 236 p.

GAGNON, Alain et Evelyne HEYER . "Fragmentation of Quйbec's Genetic Pool
(Canada) : Evidences from the Genetic Contribution of Founders per Region
in
17th and 18th Centuries". American journal of Physical Anthropology 114:
30-41, 2001.

Bertrand Desjardins
Dйpartement de dйmographie
Universitй de Montrйal